The Competitiveness of Indonesian Coconut Oil and Its Determinants

A Time Series Analysis

Abstrak

Coconut oil is one of Indonesia’s most significant agricultural export commodities, yet its export performance has fluctuated considerably over time because of various domestic and international factors. This study identifies the key determinants of Indonesia’s coconut oil export competitiveness, measured by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the 1970–2023 period. The ARDL framework was selected because all variables are stationary after first differencing, I(1), according to both the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests, thereby satisfying the preconditions for bounds testing. The results indicate that rural population growth, agricultural trade openness, and coconut oil yield have positive and statistically significant effects on export competitiveness, whereas rising coconut oil prices and exchange rate volatility adversely affect export performance. These findings support targeted policy interventions, including exchange rate stabilization measures administered by Bank Indonesia to mitigate the adverse effects of currency volatility on export competitiveness, fiscal incentives for coconut oil processing industries to reduce dependence on primary commodity exports, and strategic investments in agricultural extension programs to enhance yield productivity among smallholder farmers
Keywords:  Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); coconut oil; competitiveness; international trade JEL Classification: F14; Q17; C32}