Macroeconomic Nexus and Inequality: An Analysis of the Impact of International Trade and Demographic Factors on Income Distribution in Six ASEAN Countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46851/252Abstrak
This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables and income inequality in six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Cambodia) over the period 2007–2023. A quantitative approach was employed using static panel data regression analysis with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) to examine the effects of exports, imports, inflation, and population on income inequality, as measured by the Gini Index. The results indicate that, simultaneously, the overall model is significant (F-statistic); however, partially based on individual t-statistics, only the population variable shows a significant and negative effect. This finding suggests that population growth tends to reduce income inequality in the ASEAN region, likely driven by the demographic dividend, emphasizing the crucial role of demographic factors in fostering equitable economic development. Meanwhile, exports, imports, and inflation have no significant effects, implying that there is no statistically significant evidence that trade-driven growth affects income inequality in this model. Overall, the study highlights the importance of demographic-based economic policies focusing on equitable access to education, employment, and welfare to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth across ASEAN countries.Keywords: Income Inequality, Exports, Imports, Inflation, Population, ASEAN
JEL: A11, A13
Referensi
Acheampong, F. O., Boamah, S. A., Adom, P. K., & Asongu, S. A. (2023). Economic growth, renewable energy, and income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Economics, 124, 106822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106822
Adelakun, O. J., Ojo, O. O., & Sakhile, M. (2025). Empirical re-investigation into the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH): Evidence from EAC and SADC economies. Economies, 13(6), 175. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13060175
Ajayi, T. A. (2024). Oil price, energy consumption and CO2 emissions as growth determinants: A PVAR system GMM approach. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 18(6), 2086–2114. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-09-2023-0013
Anestiawati, C. A., Amanda, C., Khantinyano, H., & Agatha, A. (2025). Bank FinTech and credit risk: Comparison of selected emerging and developed countries. Studies in Economics and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-12-2023-0714
Asongu, S. A., & le Roux, S. (2024). Globalisation, governance and income inequality in developing countries. African Development Review, 36(2), 245–260. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2014.12061.x
Dar, M. H., & Nain, M. Z. (2025). Stochastic conditional convergence of financial development: New insights based on RALS-LM and LM unit root tests with breaks. Journal of Financial Economic Policy. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-12-2024-0372
Dinh, L. Q. (2024). The relationship between digital financial inclusion, gender inequality, and economic growth: Dynamics from financial development. Journal of Business and Socio-Economic Development, 4(4), 370–388. https://doi.org/10.1108/JBSED-12-2023-0101
Dorn, F., & Levell, P. (2024). Trade and inequality in Europe and the US. Oxford Open Economics, 3(Suppl.1), i1042–i1068. https://doi.org/10.1093/ooec/odad046
Ebaidalla, M. E. (2024). Impact of indirect taxes on CO2 emissions in the presence of institutional quality: Evidence from a global panel data analysis. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 35(4), 729–750. https://doi.org/10.1108/MEQ-08-2023-0290
Han, V., Ocal, O., & Aslan, A. (2023). A revisit to the relationship between globalization and income inequality: Are levels of development really paramount? Quality & Quantity, 57(1), 973–990. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01402-z
Hansen, T., Mahendri, I. G. A. P., Sujianto, S., Bahtiar, R., Zamroni, S., da S. H., & Yulia, P. (2025). The impact of trade with border effect on GDP per capita: Global evidence. Economies, 13(6), 174. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13060174
Huthaifa, A. (2024). Bricks and sustainability: A look at how environmental variables impact housing markets. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0095
Jayadevan, C. M., Nam, T. H., & Subba, R. Y. (2025). The myth of trickle-down effect: Examining economic growth and income inequality in India. Journal of Developing Areas, 60(1), 120–135. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13030072
Kumar, P., Ali, M., Magdalena, R., & Ilinca, M. (2025). The impact of foreign direct investment on exports: A study of selected countries in the CESEE region. Economies, 13(6), 150. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13060150
Lin, B., & Song, Y. (2025). The impact of coal prices on regional and urban-rural income inequality in China: Based on information of coal price shocks. Journal of Global Information Management, 33(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.4018/JGIM.372087
Maluleke, G. (2024). Impact of trade openness on government expenditure in South Africa: An ARDL approach. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 24(1), 144–162. https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2024-0009
McCaig, B. D. (2009). Empirical essays on poverty, inequality, and social welfare. ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global.
Muhammad-Bashir, O., & Mahadi, N. F. (2024). Finance and inequality in west african countries: Does size matter? Studies in Business and Economics, 19(3), 291–312. https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2024-0057
Olaniyi, C. O., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2024). Inflation-poverty causal nexus in sub-Saharan African countries: An asymmetric panel causality approach. International Trade, Politics and Development, 8(1), 34–64. https://doi.org/10.1108/ITPD-08-2023-0024
Owusu-Akomeah, K., Agyei, A. K., & Appiah, E. (2025). Fiscal policy and income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 34(1), 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad024
Privara, A., & Caplanova, A. (2025). Institutions, digital investment potential and productivity growth in EU and Southeast Asia. Journal of Risk Finance. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-04-2025-0180
Seti, T. M. (2025). TRADE OPENNESS AND FOOD SECURITY NEXUS IN SOUTH AFRICA: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 13(1), 13–27.
Sharif, A., Mehmood, U., Tariq, S., & Haq, Z. U. (2024). The role of financial inclusion and globalization toward a sustainable economy in ASEAN countries: Evidence from advance panel estimations. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(4), 10243–10260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03145-9
Singh, J. (2024). Does economic misery stifle human development? Empirical evidence from Asian countries. GeoJournal, 89(3), 116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11134-2
Sri, D., Ardyanto, F., & Tri, W. (2025). Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: Evidence from disaggregated budgets in middle-income countries. Economies, 13(6), 151. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13060151
Suleman, F., Bibi, S., Azam, M., Thas Thaker, H. M., & Cheong, C. W. H. (2025). Magnetic macro drivers of labor efficiency: A study of high and low trade open economies. International Journal of Manpower, 46(3), 410–429. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-03-2024-0196
Suratman, E., Mayudi, G., & Hayet. (2022). IMPACT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE ON ASEAN INCOME INEQUALITY. International Journal of Business and Society, 23(1), 390–403. https://doi.org/10.33736/iibs.4621.2022
Susilawati, S., & Satrianto, A. (2024). Influence of economy, energy, and population on foreign direct investment and CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(5), 10–18. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16414
Tsaurai, K., & Chimbo, B. (2021). Investigating the influence of internet usage on income inequality in transitional countries. EuroEconomica, 40(2). https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/investigating-influence-internet-usage-on-income/docview/2769616296/se-2
Ucler, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Topalli, N. (2023). Exploring the potential of the belt and road initiative as a gateway for renewable energy in diverse economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(45), 101725–101743. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29464-y
Ucler, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Topalli, N. (2023). Exploring the potential of the belt and road initiative as a gateway for renewable energy in diverse economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(45), 101725–101743. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29464-y
Wani, S., Kumar, A., & Bhat, J. A. (2025). The role of globalization on income inequality: A systematic review. International Journal of Development Studies, 17(1), 44–59. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-09-2024-0239
Wettinck, Q. D., & van M., A. (2024). The impact of economic integration on income inequality in the EU: A panel data analysis of the EU members from 2002-2020. Journal of Economic Integration, 39(1), 1–41. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2024006
Wong, Z. Z. A., Badeeb, R. A., & Philip, A. P. (2023). Financial inclusion, poverty, and income inequality in ASEAN countries: Does financial innovation matter? Social Indicators Research, 169(1–2), 471–503. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03169-8
Yaqin, M., & Aryani, A. D. (2024). ENERGY TRANSITION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND INEQUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN COUNTRIES. International Journal of Energy, Environment and Economics, 32(1), 53–74.
Yuliadi, I., Basuki, A. T., & Ayuningtyaswati, D. (2024). DETERMINANTS OF IMPORT IN ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 9(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2024.v9i1.4043
Yuliadi, I., & Salasi, B. N. (2021). Economic growth, employment, and income inequality in Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), 189–205. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202131601019
Yuliia, Z., Krzyzanowski, J., Marek, W., Vitaliy, K., & Adrianna, W. (2025). Food security strategy for mercosur countries in response to climate and socio-economic challenges. Sustainability, 17(16), 7280. https://doi.org/10.3390/su171607280
Zaroki, S., Barfurushi, A. Y., & Otaghsara, M. Y. (2023). Fiscal illusion and income inequality: An empirical investigation. International Journal of Social Economics, 50(11), 1587–1601. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-05-2022-0311
Zogbasse, C., Ouedraogo, R., & Coulibaly, L. (2025). Structural factors and income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 34(1), 120–135. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad040
Diterbitkan
Terbitan
Bagian
Lisensi
Hak Cipta (c) 2026 Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy
Artikel ini berlisensi Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
