Export Market Structure and Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence from Sumatra’s Provincial Exports
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46851/244Abstrak
This study analyzes the impact of export growth from the Sumatra region on Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), focusing on Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, and South Sumatra. Using annual data from 1994 to 2022, the study examines export market structure and its dynamic relationship with economic growth through the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), the four-firm concentration ratio (CR4), and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results indicate that the export market structure of these provinces is largely competitive, characterized by low concentration levels. Among the four provinces, only Aceh’s exports exhibit a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on national GDP, although the magnitude of this effect is smaller relative to exports from other provinces outside the study area. Overall, the findings confirm that continued export expansion contributes to Indonesia’s economic growth; however, the growth impact is highly dependent on export structure and diversification. The study underscores the importance of strengthening downstream processing and promoting product diversification in resource-based provinces to enhance value creation and ensure inclusive and resilient long-term economic development.
Keywords: Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), Export, Long-term Economic, Sumatera, Trade
JEL: F14; F43; O47
Referensi
Ahmad, N., Draz, M. U., & Yang, S. (2018). Causal interactions among trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Empirical evidence from ASEAN5 economies. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(3), 530–542. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-05-2017-0183
Arifah, K. F., & Kim, J. (2022). The importance of agricultural export performance on the economic growth of Indonesia: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustainability, 14(24), 16534. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416534
Basile, R., Parteka, A., & Pittiglio, R. (2018). Export diversification and economic development: A dynamic spatial data analysis. Review of International Economics, 26(4), 634–650. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12316
Basyigit, M., & Kart, E. U. (2022). Analysis of Turkey's Base Metal Ore Exports by Herfindahl Hirschman Concentration Index. Gazi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(2), 237-246.
Carrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2021). Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(4), 919-941. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-02009291-8
Cimoli, M., Dosi, G., Nelson, R. R., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2010). Institutions and policies shaping industrial development: An introductory note. LEM Working Paper Series 2010/10.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
Edeh, J. N., Obodoechi, D. N., & Ramos-Hidalgo, E. (2020). Effects of innovation strategies on export performance: New empirical evidence from developing market firms. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 158, 120167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120167.
Egger, P. H., Li, J., & Wu, H. (2024). Decomposing China's bilateral export growth: A firm-regional-transactions structural gravity approach. European Economic Review, 164, 104718. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104718
Fahmid, I. M., Wahyudi, Salman, D., Kariyasa, I. K., Fahmid, M. M., Agustian, A., Perdana, R. P., Rachman, B., Darwis, V., & Mardianto, S. (2022). “Downstreaming” Policy Supporting the Competitiveness of Indonesian Cocoa in the Global Market. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.821330
Faridi, M. Z. (2012). Contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS), 6(1), 133-146.
Feenstra, R. C., & Sasahara, A. (2018). The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis. Review of International Economics, 26(5), 1053–1083. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12370
Gede Wahyu Wicaksana, I. (2021). Economic nationalism for political legitimacy in Indonesia. Journal of International Relations and Development, 24(1), 27–50. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-019-00182-8
Hashfi, H. (2023). Analysis Of Leading Sectors In West Sumatra Province. Jurnal Pajak Dan Keuangan Negara (PKN), 5(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.31092/jpkn.v5i1.2247
Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-9009-4
Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570–10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106
Hilmawan, R., & Clark, J. (2019). An investigation of the resource curse in Indonesia. Resources Policy, 64, 101483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101483
Istaiteyeh, Rasha, Farah Najem, and Nahil Saqfalhait. 2023. Exports- and Imports-Led Growth: Evidence from a Time Series Analysis, Case of Jordan. Economies 11: 135. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11050135
Jarreau, J., & Poncet, S. (2011). Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics, 97(2), 281–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.03.005
Johantri, B., Aprilia, R., & Sopian, S. (2023). Market concentration in construction tenders in West Papua. Ilomata International Journal of Tax & Accounting, 4(2), 194–207. https://doi.org/10.52728/ijtc.v4i2.708
Jongwanich, J. (2020). Export diversification and economic growth in Thailand. Journal of Asian Economics, 70, 101210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101210
Krammer, S. M. S., Strange, R., & Lashitew, A. (2018). The export performance of emerging economy firms: The influence of firm capabilities and institutional environments. International Business Review, 27(1), 218–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2017.07.003
Kvålseth, T. O. (2018). Relationship between concentration ratio and Herfindahl-Hirschman index: A re-examination based on majorization theory. Heliyon, 4(10).
Latifah, Z., Novianti, T., & Indonesia, S. (2022). The Advantages Between Exporting Processed Agricultural Products and Raw Commodities for Indonesian Economy: Input-Output Approach. Sage Publisher, 18(4), 953–964.
Mamba, E., & Ali, E. (2022). Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 63, 257-267.
Mania, E., & Rieber, A. (2019). Product export diversification and sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 49, 144–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.04.001
Maria, C. (2022). The Impact of Trade Agreement and War on Specific Indonesia-China Bilateral Trade. Journal of Research on Business and Tourism, 1(2), 128. https://doi.org/10.37535/104001220214
Minetti, R., Mulabdic, A., Ruta, M., & Zhu, S. C. (2021). Financial structures, banking regulations, and export dynamics. Journal of Banking & Finance, 124, 106056. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106056
Mlambo, C., Mukarumbwa, P., & Megbowon, E. (2019). An investigation of the contribution of processed and unprocessed agricultural exports to economic growth in South Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1694234.
MOUSSAOUI, H. (2022). The impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Tanzania. Asian Journal of Management, Entrepreneurship and Social Science, 2(04), 150-160. https://doi.org/10.63922/ajmesc.v2i04.153
Mukhyi, M. A. (2022). Analysis of the Area of South Sumatra Industry Growth Centers. Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies, 2(6), 1134–1141. https://doi.org/10.59188/eduvest.v2i6.484
Munch, J., & Schaur, G. (2018). The Effect of Export Promotion on Firm-Level Performance. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(1), 357–387. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150410
Murindahabi, T., Li, Q., Nisingizwe, E., & Ekanayake, E. M. B. P. (2019). Do coffee exports have impact on long-term economic growth of countries?. Agricultural Economics, 65(8), 385.
Nendissa, D. R., Anindita, R., Hanani, N., Muhaimin, A. W., & Henuk, Y. L. (2019, May). Concentration of beef market in East Nusa Tenggara (ENT) Province, Indonesia. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 260, No. 1, p. 012023). IOP Publishing.
Nguyen, T. H. (2016). Impact of export on economic growth in Vietnam: Empirical research and recommendations. International Business and Management, 13(3), 45-52.
Novita, D., Rinanda, T., & Riyadh, I. Mhd. (2022). Determination of superior agriculture commodities in North Sumatra Province. E3S Web of Conferences, 339, 06003. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202233906003
Olilingo, F. Z., & Putra, A. H. P. K. (2020). How Indonesia Economics Works: Correlation Analysis of Macroeconomics in 2010 - 2019. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(8), 117–130. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no8.117
Osmaleli, O., Hana, H., & Tridoyo, K. (2023). What Market Structures and Factor Influencing Tuna Exports?(Case Study: Indonesia). In BIO Web of Conferences (Vol. 70, p. 06001). EDP Sciences.
Oyebanjo, O. (2017). Determinants of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Decomposition of exports and imports (Master’s thesis, University of Cape Town). https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/28196
Parteka, A., & Tamberi, M. (2013). Product diversification and economic development: Evidence from the economic complexity approach. European Journal of Development Research, 25(5), 699–720. https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2013.20
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Putra, A. W., Supriatna, J., Koestoer, R. H., & Soesilo, T. E. B. (2021). Differences in Local Rice Price Volatility, Climate, and Macroeconomic Determinants in the Indonesian Market. Sustainability, 13(8), 4465. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084465
Putro, F. A. D., & Hidayat, N. K. (2023). Ekspor Teh Hitam Indonesia ke Jepang: Struktur Pasar dan Daya Saing: Indonesian Black Tea Export to Japan: Market Structure and Competitiveness. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 17(2), 177-202.
Risa Shoffia, Soedarsono, Rahmat Syafaat, & Siti Hamidah. (2022). Licensing Mechanism in Oil and Natural Gas Management in Aceh (Sea Territory) Reviewed Based on the Aceh Government Law with Cooperation Law. Konfrontasi: Jurnal Kultural, Ekonomi Dan Perubahan Sosial, 9(4), 544–553. https://doi.org/10.33258/konfrontasi2.v9i4.253
Savagar, A., Aguda, O., Galanakis, Y., & Wu, J. (2024). Market concentration and productivity: Evidence from the UK. Fiscal Studies, 45(4), 459–482. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12381
Silva, E. M. da, Ribeiro, O. C. de R., & Santos, A. C. dos. (2024). Market structure as a vehicle for its plasticity: An introduction to the international cachaça market from the perspective of the industrial organization paradigm. Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental, 18(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.24857/rgsa.v18n1-181
Sembiring, B. S., Syaukat, Y. & Hastuti (2021). Struktur Pasar dan Daya Saing Karet Alam Indonesia di Amerika Serikat. Buletin ilmiah litbang perdagangan, 15(2), 235-256.
Shrestha, R., & Coxhead, I. (2018). Can Indonesia Secure a Development Dividend from Its Resource Export Boom? Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 54(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2018.1458702
Steinberg, J. B. (2023). Export market penetration dynamics. Journal of International Economics, 145, 103807. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103807
Sugiharti, L., Esquivias, M. A., & Setyorani, B. (2020). The impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s top exports to the five main export markets. Heliyon, 6(1), e03141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03141
Sulaiman, A., Ali, M. S. S., & Ahmad, A. (2020). Encouraging comparative advantages of export-oriented Indonesian agriculture products. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 575(1), 012073. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/575/1/012073
Suri, T. N., Rahmanta, & Wibowo, R. P. (2021). Analysis of Affecting Factors on the Natural Rubber Exports Volume in North Sumatera. Indonesian Journal of Agricultural Research, 4(1), 58–64. https://doi.org/10.32734/injar.v4i1.4584
Suroso, A. I., Abdullah, A., Haryono, A., & Tandra, H. (2024). The potential of China's tea trade and how it affects China's economic growth. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 1-22.
Verter, N., & Becvarova, V. (2016). The impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in Nigeria. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 64(2), 691–700. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664020691
Warburton, E. (2017). Resource nationalism in Indonesia: Ownership structures and sectoral variation in mining and palm oil. Journal of East Asian Studies, 17(3), 285–312. https://doi.org/10.1017/jea.2017.13
Yi, C. S., Radam, A., Hassan, A., & Shamsudin, M. N. (2018). Market Structure Of Malaysian Palm Oil Refining Industry. Asian Academy of Management Journal, 23(2).
Yusuf, A. A., Roos, E. L., & Horridge, J. M. (2018). Indonesia’s Moratorium on Palm Oil Expansion from Natural Forests: Economy-Wide Impacts and the Role of International Transfers. Asian Development Review, 35(2), 85–112. https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00115
Zhou, F., Wen, H., & Lee, C. C. (2022). Broadband infrastructure and export growth. Telecommunications policy, 46(5), 102347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2022.102347
Zhou, H., & Fan, J. (2023). Export structure, import demand elasticity and export stability. The World Economy, 46(3), 758-790. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13305
##submission.downloads##
Diterbitkan
Terbitan
Bagian
Lisensi
Hak Cipta (c) 2025 Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy
Artikel ini berlisensi Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
