Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy

Financial News Sentiment and Market Stability in Indonesia: A Comparative ASEAN Analysis (NLP)

2026-04-25T11:04:29+07:00

The rapid expansion of digital financial information has increased the influence of news-driven narratives on capital market behavior in emerging ASEAN economies. This study examines how financial news sentiment affects stock returns and conditional volatility in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore during 2015–2024. A daily sentiment index was constructed from Reuters, Bloomberg, Factiva, and LexisNexis articles using a hybrid Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach combining lexicon-based methods and FinBERT classification. The sentiment measures were integrated into panel regression, correlated random effects (CRE), Granger causality, and GARCH(1,1) models. The results show that sentiment significantly affects both returns and volatility across ASEAN markets. A one-standard-deviation decline in sentiment increases conditional volatility by approximately 10.3% in Indonesia (p < 0.01), with weaker effects observed in Malaysia and Singapore. The return estimations indicate that a one-unit increase in sentiment raises next-day returns by approximately 0.084 percentage points. Negative sentiment generates stronger volatility responses than positive sentiment, supporting behavioral asymmetry and loss-aversion interpretations. Cross-country findings further show that sentiment sensitivity is strongest in Indonesia and weakest in Singapore, suggesting that institutional development moderates the transmission of digital information into market outcomes. The study contributes by integrating FinBERT-based sentiment analysis with comparative ASEAN financial econometrics and demonstrates the growing importance of narrative-driven risk in emerging capital markets.

Keywords: Financial news sentiment; Market stability; Indonesia; ASEAN equity markets

JEL Classification: G14; G15; C58

Fintech Innovations for Financial Inclusivity

2026-02-16T06:38:12+07:00

The rapid advancement of technology in financial services has given rise to financial technology, or fintech, transforming how financial products and services are delivered. This paper examines how fintech innovations contribute to financial inclusivity through three analytical pillars: cost-effectiveness, accessibility, and personalization. The study employs a mixed-method design that combines a qualitative critical narrative review with quantitative bibliometric mapping. A PRISMA 2020-informed screening of Scopus-indexed literature published between 2014 and 2026 yielded 18 studies for thematic synthesis, while VOSviewer-based co-word analysis of the wider corpus identified research trends, thematic clusters, and emerging topics. The findings show that fintech lowers transaction costs, extends access through mobile payments and peer-to-peer lending, and tailors financial products to underserved users via data-driven algorithms. These gains, however, are unevenly distributed. Hidden fees, data privacy risks, weak infrastructure, and low financial literacy constrain effectiveness in low- and middle-income economies, where financial inclusion may even widen rather than narrow income disparities. The bibliometric analysis indicates that scholarly attention has grown sharply since 2021, with regtech, Islamic fintech, and green finance emerging as underexplored frontiers. The study concludes that fintech's inclusive potential depends less on technological capability than on transparent fee structures, ethical data governance, and complementary investment in infrastructure and financial literacy. It recommends targeted regulatory frameworks and community-based literacy programs to ensure that fintech innovations advance, rather than reproduce, financial exclusion in developing economies.

Keywords: financial inclusion; fintech innovation; bibliometric analysis; narrative review; developing economies

JEL Classification: O16; O33; G53

The Influence of Carbon Emission and Monetary Instruments on Economic Growth in Indonesia

2026-02-16T06:44:42+07:00

Over the past three decades, Indonesia’s economic growth has been quite fluctuating, as evidenced by the occurrence of quite severe contraction due to the impact of two major crises which caused a deep recession. This study aims to look at the influence of carbon emissions consisting of independent variables of carbon emissions from waste, carbon emissions from transportation pollution, electricity production from renewable energy and the influence of monetary policy instruments consisting of two independent variables, namely loan interest rates and portfolio investments, on dependent variables, namely economic growth proxied by Gross National Income (GNI growth) data. This study uses secondary data obtained from the World Bank and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This secondary data is in the form of a time series of 30 years, from 1994 to 2023. The analysis method of this study uses the Error Correction (ECM) Model. The results of the long-term study found that carbon emissions from waste and loan interest rates had a negative and significant influence on economic growth, while carbon emissions from transportation pollution, electrical products from renewable energy and portfolio investments had no effect on economic growth. If the government has a goal to increase economic growth, carbon emissions from waste and loan interest rates must be lowered. Reduced carbon emissions from waste will reduce pollution which will have an impact on increasing production, quality of health and human resources which will increasing productivity which will ultimately have an impact on increasing economic growth. In the short term, the results of the study stated that carbon emissions from transportation pollution and portfolio investments have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while loan interest rates have a negative and significant effect on economic growth. On the other hand, carbon emissions from waste and electrical products from renewable energy have no effect on economic growth. Increasing carbon emissions from transportation pollution mean that people in developing countries such as Indonesia use vehicles for productive activities so that it will increase economic growth. Increased portfolio investment will increase capital in a company so that it will increase profits which will have an impact on increasing economic growth. Loan interest rates that decline in the short term will encourage people to make loans for consumption or production so that it will increase economic growth.

Keywords: carbon emission, monetary instruments, economic growth, error correction model

JEL: E52, O44, Q43

The Competitiveness of Indonesian Coconut Oil and Its Determinants

2026-01-26T16:39:44+07:00

Coconut oil is one of Indonesia’s most significant agricultural export commodities, yet its export performance has fluctuated considerably over time because of various domestic and international factors. This study identifies the key determinants of Indonesia’s coconut oil export competitiveness, measured by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the 1970–2023 period. The ARDL framework was selected because all variables are stationary after first differencing, I(1), according to both the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests, thereby satisfying the preconditions for bounds testing. The results indicate that rural population growth, agricultural trade openness, and coconut oil yield have positive and statistically significant effects on export competitiveness, whereas rising coconut oil prices and exchange rate volatility adversely affect export performance. These findings support targeted policy interventions, including exchange rate stabilization measures administered by Bank Indonesia to mitigate the adverse effects of currency volatility on export competitiveness, fiscal incentives for coconut oil processing industries to reduce dependence on primary commodity exports, and strategic investments in agricultural extension programs to enhance yield productivity among smallholder farmers

Keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); coconut oil; competitiveness; international trade

JEL Classification: F14; Q17; C32}

Consumer Demand for Contemporary Beverages in Semi-Urban Markets

2026-02-14T12:53:58+07:00

This study analyzes consumer demand for contemporary beverages produced by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in a semi-urban area of Bangkalan, East Java. Specifically, the study aims to identify consumer characteristics that shape purchasing decisions and to measure the utility and relative importance of product attributes influencing consumer demand. Data were collected from 45 respondents using accidental sampling of active consumers during May–June 2025 in areas surrounding university campuses and commercial centers in Bangkalan. Conjoint analysis was employed to estimate the utility values and relative importance of five product attributes: price, flavor variety, ice level, cup size, and sweetness level. The results show that ice level has the highest importance value (27.219), followed by price (24.060) and flavor variety (22.211), while cup size and sweetness level contribute relatively smaller effects. At the attribute level, the most preferred combination consists of a price of Rp 4,000, fruit-series flavor, half ice, large cup size, and medium sweetness level, with a total utility value of 0.246. These findings indicate that consumer demand in semi-urban markets is shaped by a combination of affordability, perceived freshness, and product variety, reflecting how consumers balance product attributes under budget constraints. This study contributes to business and economic literature by providing empirical evidence on how product attributes shape consumer demand structures in semi-urban markets. The findings offer practical insights for MSMEs in designing product strategies aligned with student-dominated markets and may support local economic development through improved MSME competitiveness.

Keywords: Consumer Demand; Conjoint Analysis; Semi-Urban Markets; Contemporary Beverages

JEL : D12, M31, L66, R11