The Correlation of Export, Import, Foreign Investment, and Unemployment in Indonesia 1985-2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46851/105Abstract
Export, import, foreign investment, and unemployment are associated with the economy of a country. This research aims to analyze the correlation between export, import, foreign investment, and unemployment in Indonesia, from 1985 to 2020. This research employs secondary data, which are time series data. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is used as an analysis model. The result of the Granger Causality analysis indicates the existence of a one-way correlation between exports and imports. In contrast, the IRF (Impulse Response Function) analysis demonstrates that the shock, which existed in each variable causes other variables to be stable at the period of 6-9. Variance Decomposition analysis verifies that each variable is still influenced by itself, except for the imports variable, which is influenced more by the export variable. Therefore, an increase in exports and foreign investment should be able to increase employment opportunities in Indonesia, which will lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate. On the other hand, imports must be controlled so as not to interfere with domestic production, which can reduce productivity and result in workers losing their jobs. The government must make strategies and policies related to exports, imports, and investment that can increase job opportunities in Indonesia, both in the industrial sector and other sectors.
Keywords: Export, Import, Foreign Investment, Unemployment, VAR
JEL Code: E24 , E27, F17, F47
References
Alalawneh, M., & Nessa, A. (2020). The impact of foreign direct investment on unemployment: Panel data approach. Emerging Science Journal, 4(4), 228–242. https://doi.org/10.28991/esj-2020-01226
Amri, K., & Nazamuddin. (2018). Is There a Causality Relationship between Export and Employment: A Time Series Data Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 7(2), 86–99. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarems/v7-i2/4212
Arfiani, I. S. (2019). Analisis Empiris Hubungan antara Ekspor, Impor, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(2), 81–98. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v17i2.9485
Asbiantari, D. R., Hutagaol, M. P., & Asmara, A. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 5(2), 10–31. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i1.185
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2015). Ekspor dan Impor.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2017). Tenaga Kerja.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2019). Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka.
Christianto, E. (2013). Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Impor Beras di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu-Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 7(2), 38–43.
Dewata, B. K., & Swara, W. Y. (2013). Pengaruh Total Ekspor Libor (London Inter Bank Offering Rate) dan Upah Tenaga Kerja Terhadap Investasi Asing Langsung di Indonesia. EJurnal EP Unud, 2(8).
Farina, Fenin, and Achmad Husaini (2017). Pengaruh Dampak Perkembangan Tingkat Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Nilai Tukar Negara ASEAN Per Dollar Amerika Serikat (Studi pada International Trade Center Periode Tahun 2013-2015). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis S1 Universitas Brawijaya, vol. 50, no. 6,. pp. 44-50.
Fuji, G., & Cervantes, R. (2013). Valor Agregado en Las Exportaciones Manufactureras. Rvista CEPAL, 109, 143–158.
Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics (Fourth Edi). The McGraw-Hill.
Hanes, Don (1971) Exports, imports, and unemployment. Chemical & Engineering News, 49 (49) 3 doi:10.1021/cen-v049n049.p003
Iskandar, Iskandar (2019). Analisis Vector Autoregression (Var) terhadap Interrelationship antara Financing Deposit Ratio (FDR) dan Return on Asset (RoA) pada Bank Syariah di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, Akuntansi, dan Perbankan, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 19-39.
Iswandari, D.A., & Purnomo., M.D. (2018). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Impor Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 1977-2015.
Khan, M. I., Iqbal, A., Zaman, S. I., & Wajidi, F. (2020). Economic Development and Unemployment: A Missing Link. Researchgate.Net, 15(2), 81–100. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Faraz-Ahmed-Wajidi/publication/352905629_Economic_Development_and_Unemployment_A_Missing_Link/links/60df2277458515d6fbf326e3/Economic-Development-and-Unemployment-A-Missing-Link.pdf
Kurniawan, A. B. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Upah Minimum, Dan Investasi Terhadap Jumlah Pengangguran Di Kabupaten Gresik. Universitas Brawijaya.
Marius, J. A. (2004). Memecahkan Masalah Pengangguran di Indonesia. https://www.rudyct.com/PPS702-ipb/08234/jelamu.pdf
Merizal, Y. (2008). Pengaruh Pendidikan, Upah Minimum Kabupaten, dan Kesempatan Kerja terhadap Pengangguran Terdidik di Kabupaten Semarang. Universitas Diponegoro.
Mubasysyir, A. (2013). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor dan Investasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Priode 2002-2011. UNIVERSITAS ISLAM NEGERI ALAUDDIN MAKASSAR.
Murni, A. (2009). Ekonomika Makro. PT. Reflika Aditama.
Pitartono, R. (2012). Analisis Tingkat Pengangguran di Jawa Tengah Tahun 1997-2010. Universitas Diponegoro.
Priyono, D., & Wirathi, I. G. A. (2016). Analisis hubungan ekspor, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan kesempatan kerja di Provinsi Bali: Pengujian Vector Auto Regression. E-Jurnal EP Unud, 5(12), 1408–1434.
Roesida, A. (2019). Keterbukaan Perdagangan dan Pengangguran di ASEAN. Universitas Padjajaran.
Salvatore, D. (2014). Ekonomi Internasional. Salemba Empat.
Sessu, A. (2013). Analisis Ekspor, Impor Gula Pasir dan Dampaknya terhadap Kesempatan Kerja, Pengangguran dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi, XVIII(03), 287–301.
Sudarsono. (1988). Ekonomi Sumber Daya Manusia. Universitas Terbuka Jakarta.
Sukirno, S. (1994). Pengantar Teori Makro Ekonomi. Rajawali Pers.
Sukirno, S. (2013). Makroekonomi: Teori Pengantar. Rajawali Pers.
Susanti, E. (2019). Pengaruh investasi, ekspor, dan tenaga kerja asing terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka Indonesia tahun 2001 – 2017. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB, 8(2).
Utami, A. (2019). Pengaruh Konsumsi, Ekspor Dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Regional Sumatera Utara [Skripsi/Tesis, UIN Sumatera Utara].
Widarjono, A. (2018). Ekonometrika Pengantar dan Aplikasinya (5th ed.). UPP STIM YKPN.
Yolanda. (2017). Impacts of export development on unemployment in Indonesia. European Research Studies Journal, 20(3), 768–783. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/743
Zamzami, Hastuti, D., & Sunargo. (2020). Pengaruh ekspor Asia Timur terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia. Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, 15(1), 59–74.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
